Article Impact Level: HIGH Data Quality: STRONG Summary of JAMA Cardiology. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2025.2427 Dr. Vaishnavi Krishnan et al.
Points
- Researchers developed new risk age equations from the PREVENT model to help clinicians and patients better understand 10-year absolute cardiovascular disease risk estimates.
- On average, U.S. women had a risk age four years older than their chronological age, while the gap for men was a more significant seven years.
- Social determinants of health were impactful, as nearly one-third of men with a high school education or less had a risk age over a decade older.
- Significant disparities were identified, with Black men and women showing the largest discordance between their cardiovascular risk age and their actual chronological age compared to other groups.
- This novel risk communication tool is designed to motivate adherence to preventive therapies, particularly among younger adults who may underestimate their long-term risk of cardiovascular disease.
Summary
A recent study developed and validated novel risk age equations for the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) model, aiming to improve risk communication beyond absolute risk percentages. Existing European guidelines recommend this approach; however, they have not been updated to reflect the new PREVENT equations used in the United States. To assess the distribution of this new metric, researchers applied the equations to a nationally representative sample of over 14,000 U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 with no prior history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using data from the 2011-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The study sought to quantify the discordance between chronological age and PREVENT-calculated risk age across various demographic groups.
The analysis revealed a substantial gap between chronological and risk age. On average, women had a risk age of 55.4 years compared to a chronological age of 51.3 years, while men showed a wider gap, with a risk age of 56.7 years versus a chronological age of 49.7 years. Disparities were also linked to education, as nearly one-third of men with a high school diploma or less had a risk age over 10 years older than their chronological age. The study did not provide confidence intervals or hazard ratios for these estimates but focused on mean differences and population distributions.
Significant disparities were observed across racial and ethnic lines. The mean difference between risk age and chronological age was largest for Black men (+8.5 years), followed by Hispanic men (+7.9 years), Asian men (+6.7 years), and white men (+6.4 years). A similar pattern was observed among women, with gaps of +6.2 years for Black women, +4.8 years for Hispanic women, +3.7 years for white women, and +2.8 years for Asian women. The authors posit that these PREVENT risk age equations can serve as an intuitive clinical tool to motivate patients, especially younger adults, toward guideline-recommended preventive therapies. Future research is planned to assess their impact on clinical outcomes.
Link to the article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(25)00068-8/fulltext
References Krishnan, V., Huang, X., Perak, A. M., Coresh, J., Ndumele, C. E., Greenland, P., Lloyd-Jones, D. M., & Khan, S. S. (2025). Prevent risk age equations and population distribution in us adults. JAMA Cardiology. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2025.2427
