Article Impact Level: HIGH Data Quality: STRONG Summary of PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 18(9), e0012139. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012139 Dr. Farhana Haque et al.
Points
- This study analyzed around 3 million diarrhea cases in Dhaka from 1981 to 2010, linking them to meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity.
- Higher temperatures were significantly associated with increased diarrhea hospitalizations, with a relative risk (RR) of 3.4 after adjusting for confounders like rainfall and humidity.
- The study projected that global temperature increases of 1.5–2°C could lead to a 4.5–7.4% rise in diarrhea hospitalizations by 2100, with children under five particularly affected.
- In children under five, diarrhea hospitalizations could increase by 5.7% to 9.4% due to temperature rises, highlighting the vulnerability of this age group.
- These findings emphasize the need for public health interventions targeting climate change mitigation and adaptation to address the anticipated increase in diarrheal diseases in urban areas like Dhaka.
Summary
This study evaluates the impact of climate change on diarrhoeal disease in Dhaka, a densely populated city with significant public health challenges. The research linked approximately 3 million cases of acute diarrhea, reported between 1981 and 2010 at the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (ICDDRB), to meteorological factors such as daily temperature, rainfall, and humidity. The study identified a significant association between higher temperatures and increased diarrhea hospitalizations using time series-adapted negative binomial regression models and constrained distributed lag linear models. After adjusting for rainfall, humidity, and other confounders, the relative risk (RR) for diarrhea hospitalization associated with daily mean temperature was 3.4 (95% CI: 3.0–3.7).
The study also projected future diarrhea risks under various global warming scenarios. It estimated that a global temperature rise of 1.5–2°C, in line with Paris Agreement targets, could lead to an increase in diarrhea hospitalizations by 4.5–7.4% across all age groups by the year 2100, with the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for temperature being 1.034. The effects were particularly significant in children under five years old, where hospitalizations could increase by 5.7% to 9.4% due to temperature rises.
The findings suggest that even if global warming is limited to the targets set by the Paris Agreement, diarrhea hospitalizations in Dhaka are expected to rise significantly. This underscores the need for public health interventions focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation, particularly in urban settings, to prevent and manage the anticipated increase in diarrhoeal diseases.
Link to the article: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0012139
References Haque, F., Lampe, F. C., Hajat, S., Stavrianaki, K., Hasan, S. M. T., Faruque, A. S. G., Ahmed, T., Jubayer, S., & Kelman, I. (2024). Impacts of climate change on diarrhoeal disease hospitalisations: How does the global warming targets of 1.5–2°C affect Dhaka, Bangladesh? PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 18(9), e0012139. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012139
