Article Impact Level: HIGH Data Quality: STRONG Summary of Nature, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08940-0 Lindsay Hracs et al.
Points
- A comprehensive global study by the GIVES-21 Consortium has outlined four stages of inflammatory bowel disease progression using data from over 500 population-based studies across 82 regions from 1920 to 2024.
- The study found that early industrialized countries like Sweden have reached Stage 3, with stable incidence but increasing prevalence, and now report IBD in approximately 1 percent of the population.
- Regions in Asia, Latin America, and Africa are currently in Stage 2, experiencing rising incidence rates and highlighting a shift in global disease burden to emerging economies.
- These findings stress the need for healthcare systems to prepare for rising long-term care demands associated with increasing IBD prevalence, especially in countries already facing stable or saturated incidence.
- The research provides critical tools for global health planning, emphasizing early detection and intervention as keys to managing the growing strain of IBD on healthcare infrastructure worldwide.
Summary
A global study led by the GIVES-21 Consortium has mapped the evolving epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) across four stages, using data from over 500 population-based studies across 82 regions from 1920 to 2024. The study identifies distinct spatiotemporal transitions through these stages: Stage 1, where IBD emerges with low incidence and prevalence; Stage 2, marked by a rapid rise in incidence and low prevalence; and Stage 3, where incidence levels off while prevalence continues to grow. No region has yet reached Stage 4, where prevalence is expected to plateau due to demographic changes such as an aging IBD population.
Using data from over 522 studies, the research team observed that while the incidence of IBD stabilized in early industrialized regions such as Sweden, the prevalence continued to increase. By 2024, 1% of the Swedish population was estimated to have IBD. The study also highlighted that while new cases of IBD in regions such as Europe and North America have plateaued, countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa are still transitioning through Stage 2, with rising incident cases. These transitions were modeled based on the incidence and prevalence patterns observed across regions.
The findings underscore the importance of understanding these stages for global health systems, as healthcare systems must adapt to a growing IBD burden. In Sweden, the incidence of IBD remains stable, but the increasing prevalence is expected to put pressure on healthcare services. The study also provides valuable insights into the future trajectory of IBD, enabling health systems worldwide to anticipate and manage the long-term burden of IBD. The research emphasizes the importance of early diagnosis and management, especially in emerging regions where the incidence of IBD continues to rise.
Link to the article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08940-0
References Hracs, L., Windsor, J. W., Gorospe, J., Cummings, M., Coward, S., Buie, M. J., Quan, J., Goddard, Q., Caplan, L., Markovinović, A., Williamson, T., Abbey, Y., Abdullah, M., Abreu, M. T., Ahuja, V., Raja Ali, R. A., Altuwaijri, M., Balderramo, D., Banerjee, R., … Kaplan, G. G. (2025). Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages. Nature, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08940-0
