Article Impact Level: HIGH Data Quality: STRONG Summary of European Heart Journal, ehaf117. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf117 Dr. Jingwen Liu et al.
Points
- High temperatures accounted for 7.3% of the total cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in Australia from 2003 to 2018, equating to 223.8 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100,000 population.
- Under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the CVD burden due to high temperatures is expected to more than double by the 2050s, particularly in high-exposure regions like the Northern Territory.
- The Northern Territory is projected to experience the most significant increase in temperature-related CVD cases, indicating that some regions will be disproportionately affected.
- The study highlights the urgent need for climate adaptation measures, such as heat mitigation policies and healthcare system preparedness, to protect vulnerable populations from rising temperatures.
- Future research is necessary to develop effective intervention strategies and assess how policy efforts can mitigate the cardiovascular impacts of climate change in Australia.
Summary
This study assesses the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to high temperatures across Australia, focusing on both current and future health impacts in the context of climate change. Using data from the Australian Burden of Disease database, the study calculates the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CVD, which include both years of life lost and years lived with disability. The baseline CVD burden attributable to high temperatures from 2003 to 2018 was calculated, revealing that high temperatures were responsible for 7.3% (95% CI: 7.0%–7.6%) of the total CVD burden in Australia, equating to 223.8 DALYs (95% CI: 221.0–226.6) per 100,000 population.
The study further projects future CVD burdens under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projections for the 2030s and 2050s show a steady increase in the CVD burden due to higher temperatures. By the 2050s, the total CVD burden attributable to high temperatures is expected to more than double under the RCP8.5 scenario, which assumes population growth and no adaptation efforts. The Northern Territory is anticipated to experience the most significant increase in CVD burden, highlighting regional disparities in climate-related health impacts.
In conclusion, the study emphasizes that higher temperatures will significantly exacerbate the burden of CVD in Australia, with future projections indicating a substantial increase in morbidity and mortality due to heat exposure. The findings underline the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the health impacts of climate change, particularly for vulnerable populations in regions like the Northern Territory. Further research into climate adaptation strategies will be crucial in addressing these projected health risks.
Link to the article: https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf117/8071438
References Liu, J., Varghese, B. M., Hansen, A., Dear, K., Driscoll, T., Zhang, Y., Morgan, G., Prescott, V., Dolar, V., Gourley, M., Capon, A., & Bi, P. (2025). High temperature and cardiovascular disease in Australia under different climatic, demographic, and adaptive scenarios. European Heart Journal, ehaf117. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf117
